Glossary

The machine-readable version of everything here is GET /v1/metrics/catalog. Direction matters: for some metrics lower is better — the catalog declares it per metric.

Calibration (the skill core)

Brier score — mean squared error between entry probability and the realized outcome. Buy YES at 70¢ and it happens: error² = (1 − 0.70)². A coin-flipper scores ~0.25; elite forecasters sit near 0.15–0.18. Lower is better, and it's hard to fake — luck averages out over enough resolved markets.

Calibration / reliability diagram — bucket a wallet's entries into 10 probability bins and compare each bin's implied probability to the realized outcome rate. "Says 70% → happens 71% of the time" is a calibrated forecaster.

Calibration error (ECE) — the 10-bin summary: sum of |accuracy − confidence| per bin. Lower = better calibrated.

Brier skill score — 1 − Brier/Brier_base_rate; positive means better than always guessing the base rate.

Brier reliability / resolution — the Murphy decomposition: reliability (lower better) isolates miscalibration; resolution (higher better) rewards forecasts that actually discriminate outcomes.

Bonder-adjusted Brier — Brier excluding entries above p = 0.85, neutralizing the "buy 97¢ favorites" strategy that game-ifies raw Brier.

Peer score / relative log score — Metaculus-style log-probability versus the crowd: did you know more than the market did?

Alpha

Alpha vs mid — size-weighted gap between the pre-fill mid and your fill price, signed by side. Positive = you systematically buy below / sell above where the market was. The purest "edge at entry" measure.

Average entry edge — mean (resolution probability − entry probability), signed. Did the things you bought at 30% actually happen 45% of the time?

Information coefficient (IC) — correlation between entry edge and realized outcomes; consistency of being right, not just magnitude.

Counter-consensus alpha — alpha restricted to fills against the prevailing direction; the contrarian's report card.

Early/late-entry alpha — alpha sliced by when in the market's life you entered (first 25% vs last 25%).

Risk

Sharpe / Sortino / Calmar — risk-adjusted return: mean daily return over volatility (Sharpe), downside-only volatility (Sortino), or max drawdown (Calmar), annualized.

Max drawdown — worst peak-to-trough equity decline. CVaR (5%) — the mean of your worst 5% days; the tail you should actually fear.

P&L (the commodity numbers)

Realized / unrealized / total P&L — closed-position profits; mark-to-market on open positions; their sum. Computed PM-methodology- faithful (avg-cost, transfers ignored) — see Trader profiles.

Profit factor — gross profit / gross loss. ROI — capital-weighted return. TWRR — chain-linked daily returns, removing deposit/withdrawal bias.

Labels

Composite score — the weighted blend of the above that orders the default leaderboard; the Builder lets you make your own.

Smart-money tags — behavioral labels (sharp, calibrated, whale, early-mover, …) with scores and rationale, from GET /v1/trader/{proxy}/tags.

pnl_under_review — this wallet's P&L is in the reconciliation tail and being re-verified against on-chain truth; rankings exclude it until it clears.